If you put aside preconceptions about the normal state of affairs and think things through here, there are some really bad implications. On the one hand, we have Russia which has been engaging in a war of attrition with Ukraine for years now. It has its war economy ticking along so well that it is apparently producing surpluses which it will begin to export if the reporting I have read is to be believed. Its debt is miniscule at 16-19% of GDP, and it has cash on hand. It also seems to have little issue now with income from energy.
The EU and the UK on the other hand are broke and have debt to GDP ratios that are more suitable for countries already at war. They are such a mess they can’t even stop rubber dingies landing on their shores because they implemented a human rights legal system which has crippled them. Added to this is the fact that the US is also broke and has shifted the onus of funding for Ukraine entirely onto the Europeans, probably to generate income because the US is broke. That money will go to buy US weapons, so the US not only saves £3 billion+ a month from not paying for its own weapons and non-military aid, but gains around $2 billion more in weapons sales.
Obviously in such a situation in which the US is clearly not interested in, or capable of, bankrolling European security, the EU and UK are in trouble because they have no real military readiness. At the same time, the Russians are already geared up for war. Their is a real possibility on the table for the Russians to expand the scope of their actions - which seems to be what they are doing. This is a strategically tempting situation created by the failure of liberal governance.
Am I saying Russian tanks along the Champs-Élysées? Maybe not quite that far, but who knows. Imagine if Russia could roll over Poland? Stranger things have happened. Germany, UK, France, they are all a little short on patriotism right now, or rather, a little short on willingness to fight and die for the liberal state and its much vaunted human rights. Its going to be a little difficult to press the case for mobilization and conscription when at the same time you are filling your country with Nigerians, Pakistanis, Afghanis, and Syrians and paying them to sit around and do nothing. (also, no doubt, pushed there by the Russians.) And how likely is it you will get these diverse parts of the population to enroll in the military? Basically zero. Its far more likely they will be funded and supported by the Russians to cause trouble. Places like the UK under liberal governance are just not fit to fight a war. They aren’t even fit for peace time conditions.
It is also easy to look at stats on these things and fail to note a number of underlying things which are deeply concerning. The EU and UK armed forces numbers will be skewed by things such as women in active roles which, when push comes to shove, will just not do. Its a peace time pretend luxury which no one seriously believes. It is also skewed by things such as pension funding being counted as part of the defence budget, which is crazy.
I can only imagine the state of the UK armed forces right now after the Afghan refugee debacle where soldier were dumped out of housing to make way for Afghans. Not only dumped out, but having to watch the same properties renovated because they were deemed unsuitable for “refugees” from Afghanistan, yet they were not for active military personnel. Oh, and of course, the UK is currently busy trying to subject its armed forces to human rights law and dragging people through the courts for carrying out legitimate orders. At this point its hard not to begin to suspect that human rights laws have been weaponized by foreign actors, and if maybe some serious attention needs to be paid to the ECHR and judges in places like the UK. Like maybe their bank accounts should be checked? Maybe run some counter-intelligence investigations? I don’t know but when you have institutions acting in ways which are so counter to your basic national security, then maybe its time to ask some questions?
And of course another factor in all this which skews the whole thing is China. Russia seems to be far bolder after the summit with Xi and Modi, so it is far from the bounds of possibility that they have looked at the situation and decided that supporting Russia against the EU is helpful to them in drawing US attention away.
And again, just factor in the financial situation here. It’s looking dire.