Why Did it Happen When it Did?

Why did the US withdraw from Afghanistan? I have yet to find a good answer. My working assumption was that it was because they had decided to pivot towards supporting Ukraine, and as big as the US military is, there are only so many major operations it can conduct at once. Afghan withdrawal 2021, Ukraine war 2022 tracks.

The Israeli 10/7 2023 one leave me confused as well. I do think it had something to do with this:

I think some of the Israelis did the math, realized they had a window to maneuver here, and took it. I think the US bear hug was more about keeping the Israelis from doing something to really fuck everyone, such as air striking Iranian oil and gas causing massive inflation (which would have tanked countries like the UK and created contagion.)

People still don’t get how drastically the underlying fiscal architecture has changed. The World will never be the same.